The future,
modeled.

Turns uncertainty into forecasts by modeling reality,
simulating behavior, and learning from outcomes.

SCROLL

Better judgment
comes from
many minds.

Multiple models weigh the evidence, challenge conclusions, and reason together.

Reality
completes the
reasoning.

Every outcome tests the judgment, corrects errors, and informs what comes next.

Intelligence
should
compound.

Every cycle carries its learning forward, so judgment never begins from zero.

Products

Threshold

BusinessPolicy

Transforms complex questions into structured simulations of reality. By combining verified data, specialized AI analysts, stakeholder behavior models, and scenario forecasting, Yarrow reveals how events may unfold — and why.

  • Geopolitical
  • Policy
  • Economic & Market
  • Energy & Resource
  • Strategic Forecasting
  • Crisis & Systemic Risk
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  • United States — 38.9°N 77.0°W — Geopolitical — AI Chip Export Controls
  • Russia — 55.8°N 37.6°E — Geopolitical — Energy Security Scenario
  • Indonesia — 6.2°S 106.8°E — Policy — Pertalite Fuel Subsidy Reform
  • Port Moresby — 9.4°S 147.2°E — Policy Impact Simulation — Infrastructure concession terms under fiscal review
  • Bab el-Mandeb — 12.6°N 43.3°E — Geopolitical Risk — Transit disruption duration and reroute cost pass-through
  • Strait of Gibraltar — 35.9°N 5.6°W — Geopolitical Risk — Chokepoint transit volume and reroute cost pass-through
  • Bogota — 4.7°N 74.1°W — Policy Impact Simulation — Land-use rule adoption across regional assemblies
  • Vancouver — 49.3°N 123.1°W — Crisis & Risk Management — Port closure cascade and inland rail recovery time

Use cases

Forecasts tested
against reality.

Case GResolved benchmark
Case G cover: ECB transfer benchmark

Euro area · Monetary policy

The transfer win: nine memory-clean ECB meetings

Open interactive audit

How it works

Ground Reality

Build a verified snapshot of the world with trusted data and evidence.

Multi-Agent Reasoning

Deploy specialized AI engines to analyze causal mechanisms, stakeholders, and social dynamics.

Scenario Simulation

Model how people, institutions, and markets respond under changing conditions.

Probabilistic Forecasting

Generate possible futures with probabilities, assumptions, and reasoning.

Continuous Calibration

Measure predictions against real-world outcomes and continuously improve.